Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 29.904880 33.288672 37.163779 41.994074 47.948597 55.183318 64.862109
2025-06-29 24.715272 28.870615 34.049897 41.193788 51.178571 65.340505 88.542153
2025-07-06 22.457904 27.292002 33.766257 43.559441 59.069690 85.222464 141.219599
2025-07-13 20.031180 24.969631 31.904923 43.093902 62.566683 100.550527 207.344848
2025-07-20 18.411486 23.447292 30.813504 43.405680 67.389208 121.988491 341.915143
2025-07-27 17.163053 22.250955 29.955143 43.814379 72.536968 149.354766 662.402800
2025-08-03 16.047650 21.096975 28.955135 43.694576 76.554506 179.187487 1633.680889
2025-08-10 15.031133 19.974294 27.833501 43.076927 79.206866 209.562023 8258.102715
2025-08-17 14.288050 19.196005 27.172876 43.200607 83.841558 258.942213 NaN
2025-08-24 13.579029 18.403183 26.383715 42.890899 87.241653 314.111317 NaN
2025-08-31 12.919702 17.634337 25.547659 42.317686 89.694280 376.215555 NaN
2025-09-07 12.351566 16.970290 24.828422 41.869652 92.447355 460.870171 NaN
2025-09-14 11.851694 16.392222 24.224548 41.619303 96.046820 595.118457 NaN
2025-09-21 11.310560 15.710965 23.369659 40.646952 96.674907 711.624614 NaN
2025-09-28 11.182716 15.716629 23.804488 42.871901 111.599446 1661.905691 NaN
2025-10-05 10.771674 15.208558 23.200640 42.380006 114.685291 2708.912817 NaN
2025-10-12 10.473081 14.877034 22.913081 42.666211 121.969558 8531.625017 NaN
2025-10-19 10.206988 14.585691 22.678387 43.055829 130.450656 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 9.914211 14.230207 22.283561 42.936032 136.256295 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 9.600449 13.821279 21.748405 42.334353 138.862240 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 9.368831 13.548342 21.474623 42.453900 146.691713 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 9.118126 13.228657 21.079548 42.152631 151.587404 NaN NaN
2025-11-23 8.862962 12.889655 20.621333 41.595337 154.316416 NaN NaN